Putin's sandbox

Russia has played the West in Syria. The West on the contrary has proven embarassingly short-sighted.

BY A. Alabed

On February 1st Russia and its allies sat down in Geneva in order to work out a long-term peace plan for Syria along with the Syrian and Kurdish opposition. It was clear from the beginning that the negotiations had no future. When representatives of the Syrian regime and the main Syrian opposition groups refused to sit down in the same room together, and it became increasingly obvious that Russia in no way intended to halt his airstrikes on moderate rebel groups, a frustrated Staffan de Mistura called of the talks, postponing them to February 25th.

One month and thousands of Russian airstrikes on rebel positions later the situation has considerably changed. PYD, the main representatives of Syrian Kurds and major force in the country's north, whrer it controlls the "Autonomous cantons of Rojava", comprising the former province of Hasakeh and the Surroundings of Ifrit and Kobane, has turned to Russia and rekindled its relationship with the regime in Damascus, as the odds of regime change are dropping.

Recently it helped sever the so-called Azaz-corridor, the only supply-route for rebel forces in and around Aleppo and a lifeline for the city. In a tacit agreement with the regime the PYD's militia, YPG, has taken control of the northern part of the Azaz-pocket, while Syrian regime forces advanced from the South, closing in on the largely moderate rebels.

Additionally Russian airstrikes targeted civilians infrastructure in Aleppo and Idlib province in a rarely-disguised attempt to drive civilians out of the respective regions in order to render  attacks on rebel forces more straightforward.

Putin's web of intrigue's has in so doing reduced moderate rebels' latitude to virtually nil, ith the West standing idlely by. Only when Turkey started shelling YPG forces close to its border in a response to the bloody terrorist attack in Ankara, which the YPG is suspected to have atleast helped to carry out, some movement came into the defense ministries in Washington, London and Paris. With the only result being a phony delcaration of support and Turkey being left alone in the rain.

When Putin on February 26th finally - oh wonders - agreed to a cessation of hostilities, moderate rebel forces were significantly weakend to minor players in Deraa and Idlib provinces without a grain of hope to ever overthrow the regime in Damascus.

That's the quintessence of Putin's strategy: combat moderate rebels until the only relevant players on Syrian soil are either regime forces or regime allies (PYD/YPG) or apocalyptical Islamists (Jabhat an-Nusra, Daesh), making to only viable way to persuade support for Bashar al-Assad.

With this being Putin's final aim his compliance with the current truce is perfectly understandable. Just as the announcement of his army not to carry out any attacks in Syria for the time being. Not against moderate rebels. But not against JAN and Daesh either. Ostensibly in order "not to commit any errors". In fact because its in their interest that moderate rebel forces are further weakened by a strong JAN and a powerful Daesh.

USA who? Europe who? Syria is emblematic for the demise of Western foreign policy, if not its graveyard. We hope it's not to late to take action. To rebuild the Syrian opposition together with democratic Kurdish forces. To wrest Syria from the grip of Russia's megalomaniac tinpot Napoleon and the dark worshippers of death. That's what we hope. Sadly, that's not what we think will happen. Quite on the contrary.